Are you safe with the ten occupations with the lowest probability of disappearing in the next ten years?

Many economists, technologists and futurists are deeply worried about the future. Four waves of artificial intelligence are sweeping through the global economy, and they have the potential to pry even wider gaps between rich and poor and cause widespread technological unemployment. In the future, the disparity in wealth and class caused by technology may evolve into a deeper rift: tearing apart the social structure and challenging our human dignity.

AI is an incredibly powerful tool for business. Economists predict that by 2030, artificial intelligence will bring $15.7 trillion in wealth to the global economy. Much of the gain comes from automation displacing a lot of manual work. The resulting layoffs treat all workers equally, hitting highly educated white-collar workers as hard as many manual workers. A bachelor's degree or even a highly specialized graduate degree is no longer a job guarantee as humans compete with machines with computing power beyond the human brain.

Artificial intelligence will soon become the next GPT (General Purpose Technologies), stimulating economic production and even promoting social organizational change. The artificial intelligence revolution will reach the scale of the industrial revolution, even larger and faster. These changes will be broader than previous economic revolutions. Just as steam power has fundamentally changed the nature of manual labor, ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has fundamentally changed certain types of cognitive labor, and AI will affect both. Artificial intelligence will perform many types of physical and intellectual tasks with a speed and strength far exceeding that of humans, greatly improving productivity in transportation, manufacturing, and medicine.

I believe we can determine the following things.

• First, in the Industrial Age, new technologies brought about long-term job growth and higher wages.
• Second, new GPTs are still rare and important, and the employment impact of each GPT should be assessed individually.
• Third, among the three GPTs that are widely recognized, steam power and electrification promote both productivity and employment, while ICT increases productivity but does not necessarily increase employment.
• Fourth, artificial intelligence will also be a kind of GPT, which emphasizes skills and is applied quickly. These two characteristics indicate that artificial intelligence will have an adverse impact on employment and income distribution.