Ten occupations with the smallest probability of disappearing in the next ten years, will you be safe?

[CHINA, 2022] Many economists, technical experts, and future scholars deeply worry about the future. The four waves of artificial intelligence swept the global economy. They have the potential to pry open the gap between the rich and the poor, causing a wide range of technical unemployment. In the future, the wealth and the disparity of the class caused by technology may evolve into deeper cracks: tearing the social structure and challenging our personality dignity.

Artificial intelligence is an extremely powerful tool for business. Economists predict that by 2030, artificial intelligence will bring $15.7 trillion in wealth to the global economy. Many incomes come from automation to replace a large number of artificial works. The triggered layoffs have gained the same huge blow to all workers, bringing the same huge blow to high-educated white-collar workers and many physical workers. When human beings are competing with machines that exceed human brains, college degrees and even highly professional graduate degrees are no longer the guarantees of work.

Artificial intelligence will soon become the next GPT (General Purpose Technologies), which stimulates economic production and even promotes social organization changes. The artificial intelligence revolution will reach the scale of the industrial revolution, and even the scale will be larger and faster. These changes will be wider than the previous economic revolution. Steam motive has fundamentally changed the nature of physical labor. ICT (information and communication technology, Information and Communication Technology) fundamentally changed certain types of cognitive labor, and artificial intelligence will affect the two at the same time. Artificial intelligence will perform a variety of physical and intelligent tasks at the speed and strength of human beings, which greatly improves productivity in various aspects such as transportation, manufacturing, and medicine.

I believe we can determine the following things:

• First, in the industrial era, new technologies have brought long-term employment opportunities to increase wage levels.
• Second, the new GPT is still rare and important. It should be evaluated separately for the impact of each GPT on employment.
• Third, of the three GPTs that have been widely recognized, steam motive and electrification have also promoted the improvement of productivity and employment rates. ICT improves productivity but does not necessarily increase employment.
• Fourth, artificial intelligence will also be a GPT. It focuses on skills and fast application speed. These two characteristics indicate that artificial intelligence will adversely affect employment and income distribution.